i
Call for Papers: Thematic Issue WCP

Economic Ideas and North-South Preferential Trade Agreements in the Americas

Authors

  • Nicolás Pose Universidad de la República

Abstract

North-South Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) are an intensified version of the Uruguay round’s bargain, in which developing countries gain access to developed countries’ markets, expecting increase in inflows of foreign direct investment, but see their ‘policy space’ reduced (Shadlen, 2005). Focusing on United States’ PTAs in the Latin American region, this article seeks to answer why some Latin American countries found this bargain attractive while others did not. I argue that modern PTAs generate uncertainty over their costs and benefits, because there are not standardized tools to estimate the impact of the ‘trade-related’ provisions they include. As a result, policymakers turn to their general ideas about economic development, which assign different meanings to them, producing differing decisions. Empirically, it is shown that the argument complements previous explanations based on structural and societal variables.

Keywords:

Preferential trade agreements, economic ideas, uncertainty, North-South relations, Latin America

Author Biography

Nicolás Pose, Universidad de la República

Assistant professor at the Programme of International Studies and the Department of Political Science, School of Social Sciences, Universidad de la República (Uruguay).  Master in International Political Economy, The London School of Economics and Political Science.

References

Abdelal, R.; Blyth, M. and Parsons, C. (eds.), Constructing the International Economy, Ithaca: Cornell University Press.

Agüero, F. (2005) ‘El acuerdo de libre comercio Chile – Estados Unidos’, Colombia Internacional 61(1): 50-62.

Alcántara, M. and Luna, J. (2004) ‘Ideología y competencia partidaria en dos post-transiciones: Chile y Uruguay en perspectiva comparada’, Revista de Ciencia Política 24(1):128-168.

Amsden, A. (2001) The Rise of ‘The Rest’: Challenges to the West from Late-Industrializing Economies, Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Astori, D. (2005, May 13). ‘Queremos crecer haciendo justicia, queremos crecer para hacer justicia.’ El Espectador, retrieved from http://www.espectador.com/economia/42511/queremos-crecer-haciendo-justicia-queremos-crecer-para-hacer-justicia

Babb, S. (2003) ‘The IMF in Sociological Perspective: A Tail of Organizational Slippage’, Studies in Comparative International Development 38(2): 3-27.

Baccini, L. and Dür, A. (2012) ‘The New Regionalism and Policy Interdependence’, British Journal of Political Science 42(1): 57-79.

Baldwin, R. (1993) ‘A domino theory of regionalism’, NBER Working Paper.

Baldwin, R. (1997) ‘The Causes of Regionalism’, The World Economy 20(7), 865-888.

Barnett, M. and Finnemore, M. (2004) Rulers for the World. International Organizations in Global Politics, Ithaca: Cornell University Press.

Barreda, M. (2011) ‘La calidad de la democracia. Un análisis comparado de América Latina’, Política y gobierno 18(2): 265-295.

Babayev, B. (2015) ‘The Rise of New Institutional Economics and Assessment its Contributions to the Post Washington Consensus’, The Journal of Economic Sciences: Theory and Practice 72(2): 87-97.

Bergara, M. (2003) Las reglas de juego en Uruguay. El entorno institucional y los problemas económicos, Montevideo: DECON-Trilce.

Blyth, M. (2002) Great Transformations: Economic Ideas and Institutional Change in the Twentieth Century, New York: Cambridge University Press.

Buquet, D. and Chasquetti, D. (2004) ‘La democracia en Uruguay: una partidocracia de consenso’, Política 42 (2): 221-247.

Butelmann, A. and Meller, P. (1992) Estrategia comercial chilena para la década del 90. Elementos para el debate, Santiago: CIEPLAN.

Büthe, T. and Milner, H. (2008) ‘The Politics of Foreign Direct Investment into Developing Countries: Increasing FDI through International Trade Agreements?’, American Journal of Political Science 52(4): 741-762.

Chang, H. (2002) Kicking away the ladder. Development strategy in historical perspective, London: Anthem Press.

Chwieroth, J. (2007) ‘Neoliberal Economists and Capital Account Liberalization in Emerging Markets’, International Organization 61(2): 443-463.

Chwieroth, J. (2010) ‘Shrinking the State: Neoliberal Economists and Social Spending in Latin
America’, in Abdelal, R.; Blyth, M. and Parsons, C. (eds.), Constructing the International Economy, Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 23-46.

CIACEX (2006) Evaluación Preliminar de un Posible Acuerdo con los Estados Unidos, Montevideo: CIACEX.

Congress of Chile (2003) Boletín No 3318-10. Retrieved from
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:_xVHFslVo3kJ:www.senado.cl/appsenado/index.php%3Fmo%3Dtramitacion%26ac%3DgetDocto%26iddocto%3D6051%26tipodoc%3Dinfo+&cd=12&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk

Danza, A. (2006, January 5) ‘Uruguay negociará en el 2006 tratados de “libre comercio” con Estados Unidos y con China para poder “darle trabajo a la gente”’. Búsqueda.

Debs, A. and Helmke, G. (2010) ‘Inequality under Democracy: Explaining the Left Decade in Latin America’, Quarterly Journal of Political Science 5(3): 209-241.

El Observador (2015, April 28) ‘Astori sugirió que quedar fuera del TISA generará desempleo’ El Observador, retrieved from http://www.elobservador.com.uy/astori-sugirio-que-quedar-fuera-del-tisa-generara-desempleo-n303855

Gallagher, K. (2007) ‘Understanding Developing Country Resistance to the Doha Round’, Review of International Political Economy 15(1): 62-85.

Gallagher, K. (2008) ‘Trading Away the Ladder? Trade Politics and Economic Development in the Americas’, New Political Economy 13(1): 37-59.

Gallagher, K. (2013) The Clash of Globalizations. Essays on the Political Economy of Trade and Development Policies, London: Anthem Press.

Garcé, A. (2014a) ‘¿Réquiem para la derecha? La elección de 2014 y la izquierda que se viene’, in Garcé, A. and Yaffé, J. (eds.), La era progresista. Hacia una nueva estrategia de desarrollo, Montevideo: Fin de Siglo, 203-246.

Garcé, A. (2014b) ‘Regímenes políticos de conocimiento: construyendo un nuevo concepto a partir de eventos seleccionados en políticas públicas del gobierno de Tabaré Vázquez’, Revista de Ciencia Política 34(2): 439-458.

Garcé, A.; Lopez, C.; D’Avenia, L. and Villegas, B. (2016) Regímenes políticos de conocimiento. Evaluando un nuevo concepto a partir de la comparación de Chile y Uruguay, Montevideo: CSIC-UDELAR.

Garretón, M. (2005) ‘Reflexiones en torno de la(s) izquierda(s) chilena(s) y el proyecto de país’, Nueva Sociedad 197: 159-171.

Gathii, J. (2011) ‘The NeoLiberal Turn in Regional Trade Agreements’. Washington Law Review 86: 421-474.

George, A. and Bennett, A. (2005) Case Studies and Theory Development in the Social Sciences. Cambridge: MIT Press.

Goldstein, J. and Keohane, R. (1993) ‘Ideas and Foreign Policy: An analytical Framework’, in Goldstein, J. and Keohane, R. (eds.), Ideas and Foreign Policy. Beliefs, Institutions, and Political Change, Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 3-30.

Guzmán, H. (2003, June 16) ‘Firma del TLC Chile-Estados Unidos a nivel de gobiernos’ ALAI, retrieved from http://www.alainet.org/en/node/107703

Haas, P. (1992) ‘Introduction: Epistemic Communities and International Policy Coordination’, International Organization 46(1): 1-35.

Hira, A. (1998) Ideas and Economic Policy in Latin America. Regional, National and Organizational Case Studies, Westport: Praeger Publishers.

Hoekman, B. and Kostecki, M. (2009) The Political Economy of the World Trading System: The WTO and Beyond, Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Horn, H.; Mavroidis, P. and Sapir, A. (2010) ‘Beyond the WTO? An Anatomy of EU and US Preferential Trade Agreements’, The World Economy, 33(11): 1565-1588.

Katada, S. and Solís, M. (2008) Cross Regional Trade Agreements. Understanding Permeated Regionalism in East Asia. Heidelberg: Springer.

La Diaria (2015, May 22) ‘Declaracion publica’, La Diaria, retrieved from https://ladiaria.com.uy/articulo/2015/5/declaracion-publica/

Lagos, R. (2008) ‘Integración o fragmentación de América Latina. Perspectivas’, in Lagos, R. (ed.), América Latina: ¿Integración o fragmentación?, Buenos Aires: Edhasa, pp. 591-608.

Manger, M. (2008) ‘International Investment Agreements and Service Markets: Locking in Market Failure?’ World Development, 36(11), 2456-2469.

Manger, M. (2012) ‘Preferential Agreements and Multilateralism’, in Heydon, K. and Woolcock, S. (eds), The Ashgate Research Companion to International Trade Policy, Farnham: Ashgate Publishing, 405-422.

Manger, M. and Shadlen, K. (2014) ‘Political Trade Dependence and North-South Trade Agreements’, International Studies Quarterly 58(1): 79-91.

Mansfield, E. and Milner, H. (2012) Votes, Vetoes, and the Political Economy of International Trade Agreements. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Maxfield, S. (2003) ‘The Dynamics of State–Business Relations in the Formulation of Latin American Trade’, in Aggarwal, V.; Espach, R. and Tulchin, J. (eds.), The Strategic Dynamics of Latin American Trade, Stanford: Stanford University Press, 59-82.

Milner, H. and Judkins, B. (2004) ‘Partisanship, Trade Policy and Globalization: Is There a Left–Right Divide on Trade Policy?’, International Studies Quarterly 48(1): 95-119.

Montecinos, V. (2009) ‘Economics: the Chilean story’, in Montecinos, V. and Markoff, J. (eds.), Economists in the Americas, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.

Moreno, M. (2010) ‘Think tanks en Chile: Estilos y prácticas tecnocráticas en la formación de políticas’, Enfoques 8(12): 103-125.

Ostry, S. (2002) ‘The Uruguay Round North-South Grand Bargain: Implications for future negotiations’, in Kennedy, D. and Southwick, J. (eds.), The Political Economy of International Trade Law, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 285-300.

Panizza, F. (2008) ‘Economic Constraints and Strategic Choices: The Case of the Frente Amplio of Uruguay’s First Year in Office’, Bulletin of Latin American Research 27(2): 176-196.

Peinhardt, C.and Allee, T. (2012) ‘Failure to Deliver: the Investment Effects of US Preferential Economic Agreements’, The World Economy 35(6): 757-783.

Porras, J. (2003) La estrategia chilena de acuerdos comerciales: Un análisis político, Santiago: CEPAL.

Porzecanski, R. (2010) No voy en tren. Uruguay y las perspectivas de un Tratado de Libre Comercio con Estados Unidos (2000-2010), Montevideo: Random House Mondadori.

Quijano, J. (ed,) (2006) Aspectos de la inserción internacional del Uruguay: análisis y reflexiones, Montevideo: Presidencia de la República-OPP-COMISEC.

Quiliconi, C. (2014) ‘Competitive Diffusion of Trade Agreements in Latin America’, International Studies Review 16(2), 240-251.

Roberts, C. and Heydon, K. (2012) ‘Trade in Services’, in Heydon, K. and Woolcock, S. (eds), The Ashgate Research Companion to International Trade Policy, Farnham: Ashgate Publishing, 167-185.

Rodrik, D. (2014) ‘When Ideas Trump Interests: Preferences, Worldviews, and Policy Innovations’, Journal of Economic Perspectives 28(1): 189-208.

Rojas, F. (2015) Ideas y política exterior. El rol de las comunidades epistémicas en la participación de Chile en la Alianza del Pacífico, Tesis de maestría en ciencia política, Santiago: Universidad de Chile.

Rosales, O. (2003) ‘Chile’s Multidimensional Trade Policy’, in Aggarwal, V.; Espach, R. and Tulchin, J.(eds.), The Strategic Dynamics of Latin American Trade, Stanford: Stanford University Press, 189-212.

Rosales, O. (n.d) Tratados de libre comercio con la Unión Europea y Estados Unidos: Nuevas bases para el desarrollo. Unknown publisher. Retrieved from http://www.u.cursos.cl/ingenieria/2012/1/IN70Z/material_docente/bajar?id_material=432135

Ryan-Collins, L. (2009) ‘Power and choice in international trade: How power imbalances constrain the South’s choices on free trade agreements, with a case study of Uruguay’, LSE DESTIN Working Paper No 09-97.

Saad-Filho, A. (2010) ‘Growth, poverty and inequality: From Washington Consensus to inclusive growth’, DESA Working Paper No 100.

Salazar-Xirinachs, J. (2003) ‘The Proliferation of Regional Trade Agreements in the Americas: An Assessment of Key Issues’, in Aggarwal, V.; Espach, R. and Tulchin, J. (eds.), The Strategic Dynamics of Latin American Trade, Stanford: Stanford University Press, 116-157.

Sánchez-Ancochea, D. (2008) ‘State and Society: The Political Economy of DR-CAFTA in Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, and El Salvador’, in Sánchez-Ancochea, D. and Shadlen, K. (eds.), The Political Economy of Hemispheric Integration, New York: Palgavre Macmillan, 171-200.

Schneider, B. (2004) Business Politics and the State in Twentieth-Century Latin America, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Schonhardt-Bailey, C. (1991) ‘Lessons in Lobbying for Free Trade in 19th-century in Britain: to Concentrate or Not’, American Political Science Review 85(1): 37-58.

Scott, J. and Wilkinson, R. (2011) ‘The Poverty of the Doha Round and the Least Developed Countries’, Third World Quarterly 32(4): 611-627.

Shadlen, K. (2005) ‘Exchanging Development for Market Access? Deep Integration and Industrial Policy under Multilateral and Regional-Bilateral Trade Agreements’, Review of International Political Economy 12(5): 750-775.

Shadlen, K. (2008) ‘Globalization, Power, and Integration: The Political Economy of Regional and Bilateral Trade Agreements in the Americas’, Journal of Development Studies 44(1): 1-20.

Silva, E. (1998) ‘Organized Business, Neoliberal Economic Restructuring, and Redemocratization in Chile’, in Durand, E. and Silva, E. (eds.), Organized Business, Economic Change, and Democracy in Latin America, Miami: North-South Centre Press, 217-252.

Silva, E. (2002) ‘Capital and the Lagos Presidency: Business as Usual?’, Bulletin of Latin American Research 21(3): 339-357.

Silva, E. (2009) Challenging Neoliberalism in Latin America, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Silva, P. (1991) ‘Technocrats and politics in Chile: From the Chicago Boys to the CIEPLAN Monks’, Journal of Latin American Studies 23(2): 385-410.

Simmons, B.; Dobbin, F. and Garrett, G. (2006) ‘Introduction: The International Diffusion of Liberalism’, International Organization 60(4): 781-810.

Symonds, R.; Burghi, W.; Seizer, R. and Puig, J. (2006) Posición conjunta respecto a la conveniencia para el Uruguay de negociar acuerdos comerciales con países de extrazona, Montevideo: Cámara de Industrias del Uruguay.

Solervicens, E. (2003) ‘Impacto del tratado de libre comercio entre Chile y Estados Unidos’, Chronique 03-09 Observatoire Des Amériques.

Solís, M.; Stallings, B. and Katada, S. (2009) Competitive Regionalism. FTA Diffusion in the Pacific Rim, Hampshire: Palgavre Macmillan.

Stallings, B. (2009) ‘Chile: A Pioneer in Trade Policy’, In Solís, M.; Stallings, B. and Katada, S. (eds.), Competitive Regionalism. FTA Diffusion in the Pacific Rim, Hampshire: Palgavre Macmillan, 118-138.

Uval, N. (2015, June 10) ‘Demasiado Caro’, La Diaria, retrieved from https://ladiaria.com.uy/articulo/2015/6/demasiado-caro/#!

Valenzuela, S. (1995) ‘Orígenes y transformaciones del sistema de partidos en Chile’, Estudios Públicos 58(2): 5-80.

Woll, C. (2008) Firm Interests: How Governments Shape Business Lobbying on Global Trade, Ithaca: Cornell University Press.

WTO (2011) World Trade Report, Geneva: WTO.

Yaffé, J. (2005) Al centro y adentro: la renovación de la izquierda y el triunfo del Frente Amplio en Uruguay, Montevideo: Linardi y Risso.

Zoellick, R. (2002, December 5) ‘Unleashing the trade winds’, The Economist, retrieved from http://www.economist.com/node/1477509