El Comercio Entre Nosotros: Barreras y Predictores de las Exportaciones de Bienes Culturales desde Chile
Autores/as
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Matias Alberto Munoz Hernandez
Sound Diplomacy
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4459-0375
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Resumen
Para muchos países del Sur Global, la demanda interna de bienes culturales no puede sostener los medios de vida de los trabajadores culturales. Por lo tanto, la expansión de las exportaciones resulta esencial; sin embargo, el acceso a los mercados del Norte Global sigue estando limitado por persistentes barreras comerciales. Este artículo examina los determinantes de las importaciones de bienes culturales provenientes del Sur Global, con un enfoque en Chile como caso representativo. Utilizando una base de datos de exportaciones culturales chilenas entre 2005 y 2015, el estudio combina un modelo Logit de elección binaria con un algoritmo de Bosques Aleatorios (Random Forests) para identificar y jerarquizar los predictores más influyentes de la probabilidad de importación. El análisis Logit muestra que menores distancias, idioma compartido, proximidad cultural, estabilidad política y acuerdos comerciales preferenciales aumentan la probabilidad de comercio, mientras que los acuerdos de alcance parcial la reducen. Los resultados de aprendizaje automático refuerzan la importancia de un sólido desempeño macroeconómico, un mayor stock de capital y la robustez institucional, junto con marcos comerciales integrales, en particular los acuerdos de integración económica, los tratados de libre comercio y los acuerdos preferenciales. La afinidad cultural, medida a través de un idioma común, también aparece de manera consistente como un factor positivo. Al integrar modelos econométricos y predictivos, esta investigación aísla las variables clave que configuran el comercio cultural y las traduce en orientaciones estratégicas para los responsables de políticas públicas. Los hallazgos apuntan a vías de acción concretas para que los exportadores del Sur Global diversifiquen mercados, fortalezcan asociaciones comerciales y mejoren la resiliencia económica de sus sectores creativos.Palabras clave:
Exportaciones Culturales , Acuerdos Comerciales , Fuerza Laboral Creativa , Aprendizaje AutomáticoCitas
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